Black swans of the revolution. Devoted to the anniversary of the February bourgeois revolution …

Black swans of the revolution. Devoted to the anniversary of the February bourgeois revolution …
Дата: Monday March 6th, 2017

These days there is  100th anniversary of the February revolution. There are different opinions about this event. The Bolsheviks called it “bourgeois,” hinting that the next, Oktyabrskaya,  has  been the right one, “socialistic.” There are historians who, on the contrary, consider  that the October Revolution isn’t a revolution,  they consider it to be the coup. There is an opinion that both the October and February were one revolution – the Great one. Progolovne isn’t going to argue with historians, with respect to them, we’ve tried to restore the course of events of those years.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan is a book by the essayist, scholar, philosopher, and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book researches unpredictable events that have significant consequences, will come out after many years. However, the “black swans” themselves, that is, events that can affect the course of history, have always existed. Which of the events that took place in February (March) 1917 became fatal for Emperor Nicholas II and his empire is difficult to say. Most likely it’s in the tragic chain of these events, which we will try to recreate.

February 21 (March 6, according to the old style)

Petrograd (not so long ago renamed from St. Petersburg) wasn’t supplied with bread. No, there was enough bread, the trouble was with its delivery. At that time, wagons and locomotives were needed at the front, so the railways functioned poorly. Bad weather conditions and snow drifts were also part of the problem. Disruptions to supply began. People went to smash bakeries. The riots began.

February 22 (March 7, according to the old style)

Despite the riots, the emperor descended to the headquarter of the Russian army, to Mogilev. The capital in which there was a mass of a revolutionary elements, including soldiers of reserve regiments who agreed to anything, just not to go to the front, he left in the care of his wife, the Empress Alexandra. To say that it is not popular among all sections of the population is to say nothing. She was accused of all the deadly sins – from espionage in favor of Germany to sexual relations with Grigory Rasputin. And physically she was not in the capital, but in Tsarskoe Selo. To be short, this step from Nicholas II was, to put it mildly, not circumspect.

February 23 (March 8, according to the old style)

The king arrived to Mogilev, and in Petrograd the people went to manifestation. Strikes at the largest enterprises in St. Petersburg began. The authorities showed indecisiveness – no one wanted to take responsibility for themselves. The meeting of military and police officials ended with almost nothing. Responsibility for order in the city was transferred to the military, but the demonstrations did not begin to disperse, referring to the fact that the Cossacks do not have lashes.

February 24 (March 9, according to the old style)

The strike was proclaimed to be universal. In Petrograd they began to beat policemen. For the protection of order, the regiments – Grenadier, Kexholm, Moscow, Finland  moved out … However, there wasn’t any order anymore . Soldiers took the position of outside observers. Even the Cossacks, the faithful support of the King and the Motherland, did not use weapons, on the contrary, they  were smiling and talking with the demonstrators.

February 25 (March 10 in the old style)

The demonstrators rushed to the center, where they entered into a battle with the police. Some military units started shooting people. The first killed and wounded on both sides appeared. On this day, the Emperor received two reports  about what is happening in the capital. He sent a telegram to General Khabalov, in which he demanded to stop the riots. Arrests began at night.

February 26 (March 11, according to the old style)

The bridges were dissolved, but the people rushed to the center, crossing the frozen  Neva. Again there were clashes with the police and the military, but this time not so peaceful. A grenade was thrown at the policemen. Workers ‘and soldiers’ deputies seized the Vyborg side and established over it the power of the local Soviet of Workers ‘and Soldiers’ Deputies. At 17.00, the chairman of the State Duma, Mikhail Rodzianko, sent Nicholas II a telegram in which he said that there is the real anarchy in Petrograd and military units had been shooting at each other, although this did not happen. Only the soldiers of the Guards Pavlovsky Regiment defected to the rebels and opened fire on the police and their own officers. The King did not want to react to this telegram, telling the minister of his court, Vladimir Frederiks – “again this fat Rodzianko is writing all sorts of nonsense to me.”

February 27 (March 12, according to the old style)

The emperor dissolved the Senate with his decree, and a break was declared in the work of the State Duma, that is, in fact, it was dissolved as well. In fact, the empire remained without power. Legislative bodies of both chambers did not function, and the autocrat was in Mogilev. Rodzianko, in response demanded Nicholas to cancel the order to dissolve, otherwise, he said, the revolution will go to the front and overwhelm the whole country. Copies of these telegrams were sent to all commanders of the fronts.

On the same day an armed uprising began. The soldiers of the Volyn regiment were the first to perform it, it was supported by the Lithuanian and Preobrazhensky regiments. They were joined by workers, first of the Vyborg side, then of the whole city. The armed people expressed their confidence in the State Duma, the Provisional Committee of the State Duma was formed, most of whose members would later join the Provisional Government. The government gathered for its last meeting at the Mariinsky Palace and, in fact, they  had self-dissolved.

Nicholas II realized the whole gravity of the incident only at 19.00. General Alekseev suggested to pacify the riot. They had several million soldiers. Several regiments could be removed from the theater of operations quite painlessly. However, the Emperor refused from this plan. He only sent several brigades of infantry and cavalry to guard his family in Tsarskoe Selo.

Nevertheless, General Alekseev began to prepare such an operation. He suggested to accumulate a certain amount of forces in direction of Tsarskoe Selo, and then move them to the rebellious capital. He was supported by other commanders of the fronts. An expedition of 40-50 thousand soldiers was prepared. Whether Nicholas knew about this preparation, for now, it is not known.

 

February 28 (March 13, according to the old style)

 

The Provisional Committee of the State Duma took the full power in Petrograd, appointed General Kornilov commanders and sent out telegrams with their powers to all ministries. And then he had a competitor – Petrosoviet, consisting of Social Democrats, Socialist-Revolutionaries and other, as they had been told, revolutionary elements. They were countered by counter-revolutionary elements – generals and admirals, commanders of fleets and fronts. The detachment of General Ivanov at that time advanced to Tsarskoe Selo. There also was the royal train, that only reached Orsha, now it is the Vitebsk region of Belarus. The train stopped on the orders of the same Provisional Committee, which took control of the Ministry of Railways. Meanwhile, in Petrograd there were arrests of those, who were faithful to the King.

 

March 1 (March 14, according to the old style)

The Emperor unsuccessfully tried to get through to Tsarskoe Selo. There was disorder around. In the end, he reached the station Bottom, where the telegram from Rodzianko was waiting for him: “Station Bottom. His Imperial Majesty. Now by an emergency train I am going to the station. The bottom for the report to you, Sovereign, about the state of affairs and the necessary measures for saving Russia. I earnestly ask you to wait for my arrival, for every minute is precious. ” Nicholas was given the demands of the revolutionary masses. Among other things, they demanded a renunciation of the throne.

March 2 (March 15 in the old style)

 

The troops in Tsarskoe Selo went over to the side of the revolution. Nicholas II signed a renunciation of the throne for himself and his son in favor of his brother Michael.

 

October 1917 was inexorably approaching ….

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