What is happening in Lybia?

Libya may become a new point of tension, which will affect the alignment of forces not only in North Africa and Europe, but throughout the world. ProGolovne has tried to figure out what was happening at this point.

Gaddafi

Muammar Gaddafi, the dictator of Libya in fact came to power in this country back in 1969, although he had been ruing the country for 42 years. Gradually, he squeezed all his rivals and then choked any opposition performances. Increase of energy prices helped him to maintain a relative prosperity in a country rich in hydrocarbons. In the sphere of foreign policy, he behaved very extravagantly, he always carried a chic tent and was followed by few female bodyguards everywhere, but that’s not the main point. Like many dictators, he at some point decided that he could “steer” geopolitics, or at least actively intervene in it. This was reflected in the military actions aimed at neighboring Chad and Egypt, in supporting other dictatorial regimes in Africa, and in organizing terrorist attacks in European countries, particularly in Germany and Britain. For the time being this was tolerate but later the cup of patience has overflowed.

War

At first, the civilized world managed with sanctions and point-by-point fighting and it had lasted for several years. But in 2010 problems began  in Libya. The corresponding decision of the UN Security Council was adopted and the French and US troops began military operations in that country. A special piquancy of history added the moment that Libya was bombed by French aircraft, and French President at the time was Nicolas Sarkozy, whose election campaign was sponsored by Muammar Gaddafi. Whatever it was, the support of the troops of the NATO countries gave the opposition forces and a civil war began.

Civil War

After several months of fighting, on August 20, detachments of Libyan rebels attacked the capital. Government troops ran away, and Muammar Gaddafi ran away as well. On the morning of October 20, 2011, the National Transitional Council units had stormed the city of Sirte, where they captured him. After the bullying and beatings taken on the camera, he was killed. At that moment the most powerful dictator of Libya was 69 years old. At that time, Dmitry Medvedev was the President of Russia. According to rumors, it was the staff in Libya and its non-interference in this story that forced Vladimir Putin to occupy the presidency after the first cadence of Dmitry Anatolyevich. Although it was originally planned that the latter will hold the president’s post  for two cadences.

Did this bring peace to the country?

The world has not been established in the country. Battles between different groups had started. De facto, Libya  broke up into several independent regions. In 2014, a new round of confrontation, now between local Islamists and government troops of the renewed Libya, began. IGIL took an active part in this conflict. Military actions with varying intensity continue nowadays as well.

Today

At the moment, Libya has two most powerful political forces. The first is a newly elected legitimate parliament (the House of Representatives), which works in the city of Tobruk in eastern Libya. The second is the government of national unity headed by Faiz Faraj. They can not reach a consensus in any way. Meanwhile, criminal business is flourishing in the mess that has happened – smuggling into neighboring Europe,  the traffic of illegal migrants in European direction. How effectively to resist this, the European Union has notyet decided. If the traffic from Turkey, through the land border, could be localized by joint actions of the police and army units, then we can talk about lots of miles of the sea border …

And here comes Russia

The President of Russia has always been dreaming of becoming a serious player on the geopolitical front. While he does not do it very well, he is still trying his best. He almost openly suggested that the US and Europe solve the “Syrian problem”. According to some reports, it was he who arranged a mass flow of refugees, which managed to be localized. Now he can, following the Syrian examples, arrange the same flow across the Mediterranean.Russia has also oil interests, and the interests of Russian energy companies, not to mention the arms market. All this is forcing Russia to activate the “Libyan direction.”

Instead of an afterword

According to some reports, Russian special forces are already in Libya. Yesterday, US intelligence unified the data that on the border with Libya Russian transport aircraft had been seen, and in airspace there were Russian drones. Yesterday, the Libyan opposition appealed to the Russian Federation with a request for military assistance, so legal procedures are also being respected. Prior to the standard and so familiar to Ukrainians, “Putin, bring the military!”, apparently, there are few days, and maybe hours. Another question is, will Putin’s economy sustain another war? But this topic is a separate conversation.